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Carney’s Brexit warnings should not be silenced – Bob Hunt

by: Bob Hunt, chief executive, Paradigm Mortgage Services
  • 03/06/2016
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Carney’s Brexit warnings should not be silenced – Bob Hunt
When we come to redefine ‘impossible jobs’ in the future we might look to include the Governor of the Bank of England to that list, says Bob Hunt, chief executive of Paradigm Mortgage Services.

It would undoubtedly join other impossible roles including the England football manager, the UK Prime Minister, and Donald Trump’s hairdresser.

Now, given the financial recompense that comes with the role currently occupied by Mark Carney I’m sure there are plenty of candidates who would be willing to take it on – perhaps I might even give it a go myself. However, in these post-credit crunch days I’m left wondering – especially as we motor towards the EU referendum next month – what we actually want from our Governor?

This week especially, when Carney pronounced further on the potential impact of a Brexit and how this might impact on the UK, seems to be a case in point. Critics have been quick to call for his resignation suggesting he has overstepped the mark, but do we as a nation truly want the Governor to sit idly by and not, at the very least, give us an indication of the potential ramifications of that choice?

Whether you agree with him or not, whether you are in favour of remaining in or leaving the EU, the very least I want is an indication from someone, quite frankly, who should be able to give a view on what we might be letting ourselves in for. In 12 to 24 months’ time if we do have a potential recession, a fall in GDP, a plunge in sterling, an increase in inflation, a drop in employment, isn’t it better to have known this from the outset, rather than questioning the Bank about why, if they knew the risks, they didn’t warn us pre-vote.

Now, while some will (perhaps quite rightly) suggest that Carney’s ability to predict the future as been found sorely wanting over the past few years – forward guidance anyone? – I’m still happier for him to express that opinion than not.

I’ve spoken about this before but previous Governor Mervyn King’s recent attempt to rewrite history around his role in the last financial crisis, with him as a leading predictor of it, leaves an incredibly sour taste in the mouth. To my mind, King did very little to confront the growing problems that eventually resulted in the Crunch and subsequent recession.

At least in this pre-referendum phase we cannot accuse Carney of sitting back and not giving a view, especially when he appears to be the one person in the land who (according to the polls) is most trusted by the British public to give it to them straight.

Without doubt, it does seem that we are being treated to a series of worst-case scenarios but, let’s be fair, Carney is not alone in thrusting these into the public eye. ‘Leave’ campaigners might baulk at such pronouncements but, particularly when it comes to what a Brexit might mean for the housing and mortgage markets and the overall economy, I would rather have too much information and opinion, than not enough.

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