The latest indices from Moody’s Investors Service on the UK prime and sub-prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market revealed that the trend for sub-prime repossessions fell to 1.7% in December from 3.5% in December 2008.
The proportion of sub-prime arrears by over three months was at 19.7%, a small increase from the 19.4% rate six months ago but up from the 13.7% recorded at the same time in December 2008. The number of prime arrears by over three months rose slightly from 1.8% in November to 1.9% in December.
Redemptions reached 1.5% in December 2009, which compares with 1.3% in December 2008. The total redemption rate fell into single digits, recording 9.7%, which is substantially below the 20.7% recorded in December 2008 and 31.9% in December 2007.
However, Moody’s outlook for the UK residential mortgage backed securitisation (RMBS) market is negative as it expects the unemployment rate to continue to increase in 2010, peaking at 8.6% in Q2 2010.
It expects the continuation of low interest rates for most of 2010 will support households and help to contain the number of repossessions.
It said the current weak but stable performance of the UK non-conforming market is largely in line with economic forecasts. It also believes the property market will resume falling in coming months and continue doing so until late 2010.
