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Exclusive: Mortgage lending to hit £167bn by 2015

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  • 26/09/2011
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Exclusive: Mortgage lending to hit £167bn by 2015
Gross mortgage lending is expected to languish £155bn until 2015, when it is predicted to finally hit £167bn after positive housing market growth returns in 2013.

An up-tick in activity, property price growth and net lending will be marked in 2013, said property analytics company Hometrack’s director of strategy, risk and economics, Gary Styles.

The firm’s base forecasts show repossessions hitting a 43,000 peak next year, followed by a retreat back down to £41,000 in 2013 and 30,000 by 2015.

The statistics presented at The British Mortgage Senate, showed net lending, or the balance between UK mortgage borrowing and repayment figures, staying low at £8bn this year but increasing to £14bn in 2015.

However, unemployment is expected to peak next year at 2.7m, falling back to 2.3bn by 2015.

Meanwhile, more Hometrack figures out today suggest the cost of buying a first home is 42% higher in rural areas compared to urban. The average price of a rural first-time buyer property stands at £187,715, against £133,005 in urban areas.

The income needed to access the first rung of the property ladder in a rural location is £46,500, where, the average income needed to purchase a comparable home in an urban area is almost £14,000 less at £32,750.

Hometrack said that high prices in rural areas are being driven by lack of supply coupled with rising demand.

Richard Donnell, director of Hometrack, said: “Those working in the countryside, frequently find themselves competing for homes with commuters working in nearby urban areas, retired households and second home owners, all of whom are less reliant on mortgage finance.

“Add to this a relative under-supply of smaller sized properties and lower turnover levels and it is easy to see how the scarcity of housing is keeping prices relatively high and out of the reach of many first-time buyers.”

Donnell added that sustainability in rural areas is vital to the long-term well-being of the countryside.

He also said that the challenge facing housing strategists, local planners and house builders is how best to meet the needs of rural communities.

 

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