HML said that repossessions are likely to peak in 2012 at 37,709, up from 33,257 in 2011, before reducing in 2013. However, this is predicated on no unforseen economic shocks hitting households.
This is less than the CML forecast of 37,000 repossessions in 2011 and an expected rise to 45,000 next year.
HML’s research analysed more than 800,000 mortgage accounts and predicted that all UK regions will see “modest” increases in both the rate and number of repossessions.
Northern Ireland is expected to have the highest rate of repossessions at 1.08% during 2012, more than four times the lowest rate of 0.25% in the South West.
The South East is likely to see the highest number of properties repossessed of any region, at 4,226, while the North East is expected to record the lowest number of repossessed properties, at 1,635.
Damian Riley, director of HML Business Intelligence, said: “The increase in property repossessions during 2012 will be the legacy of high levels of mortgage arrears in 2011.
“There is still a stock of 27,300 loans with arrears of more than 10% of their outstanding balance. Although interest rates continue at historically low levels and look set to remain that way during 2012, the worsening economic situation will inevitably put pressure on household incomes.
“Some lenders may also choose to apply forbearance only when it is deemed fully appropriate to do so and a tougher approach may cause repossession rates to rise further. However, there is no evidence that this has yet started to happen.”
