I will leave the predictions about interest rates to others, but there are three less obvious areas that come to mind and, while they are not causes for unbridled celebration, they do offer a little light where we might otherwise fear all is shade.
Firstly, as the dust settles on the various regulatory reviews of the banking and mortgage industry, we will all be clearer about the direction of financial services next year.
While there will be much gnashing of teeth at the extent of the limitations, responsibilities and expectations of the new banking model, the certainty about the future of banks and MMR will mean we can all plan and operate with more confidence.
Secondly, I expect the property market to continue to slowly recover.
Between 1996 and 2007, property as an investment looked like a dead cert. If you were able to afford a property, you could buy and expect it to soar in value. It was the nearest thing to free money any of us have ever experienced.
Now, Nationwide figures show that the average price of the UK home stands at just over £167,000 – 1.2% higher than a year ago.
The fall has abated and, while it is no cause for unbounded rejoicing, we should expect the incremental increases in the South East and percentage point increases in outer London and prime London to continue. Property remains the number one asset for people to realize wealth and this will not change.
Lastly, amidst the economic gloom, let us not forget there has been one chink of light for mortgage brokers this year in the shape of buy to let.
Despite property price stagnation or falls across much of the UK, there are still many good reasons to pursue buy-to-let investment. It is one segment of the market that, notwithstanding any fallout from the eurozone, is destined to grow next year by anything up to 10%.
Next year will be a challenge on many levels, but a less inclement operating environment will allow us all to make the most of our opportunities.
Robin Johnson is managing director of Kinleigh, Folkard and Hayward
