The IMLA member survey revealed by the end of 2012, IMLA members expect inflation to fall by 2% to 4%, with the average view at 2.79%.
In terms of the economy, member views are varied, with some expecting a sharp recession with GDP at -2% and others relatively positive at +1.5% but on average it is expected to continue to be sluggish with GDP at 0.91%.
Members also expect unemployment levels to remain high with some risk of further deterioration.
Peter Williams, IMLA executive director, said: “The survey results may look negative but represent a realistic outlook for the year ahead and remind us that we are still in very challenging times for the economy. The mortgage market remains very limited which is why intermediaries can play such an important role to help inform consumers about the best products available and what is right for them.
“Matching lenders and products to consumers is crucial to ensure sustainable lending and improve the market. The CML’s figures show that intermediaries accounted for nearly two thirds of sales; 64% of first-time buyer loans, 57% of remortgage loans and 52% of home mover loans, during the third quarter of 2011.”
Williams added that by 2016 IMLA members are expecting base rates to have risen to 2.83% and the average price of a UK home to be around £178k, up from the CML’s figure of £163k in November 2011.
“Members are confident that the role of the intermediary will remain important and expect intermediaries to hold 59% of the first-time buyer market, 60% of the remortgage market, 51% of the home mover market and 82% of the buy-to-let market by 2016.”
