In its property tracker index, the BSA said that consumers in the South East are the most bullish with 53% forecasting that property prices will go up and 14% saying that they will fall this year.
Consumers in Wales are the least optimistic on price with a fairly even spread between expectations with 30% expecting prices to increase, 29% expecting a drop, and 22% expecting to see no change.
The number of consumers who think that now is a good time to buy is also holding remarkably firm, on a par with the December 2011 figure of 44%.
The BSA said that despite these improvements, significant barriers are still in the way of aspiring home owners and growth in this sector.
Fears over job security were cited as a barrier by 56% of all respondents, up from 54% in December 2011. This concern was most acutely felt amongst 59% of women.
The number of people who saw Stamp Duty as a barrier also rose, up from 10% to 12% between December 2011 and March 2012. Of all respondents, 17% said that they were looking to buy property in the near future. This is made up of 6% of first-time buyers, 8% of home movers and 3% of buy-to-let investors.
Paul Broadhead, head of mortgage policy at the BSA, said: “It is good to see some positive indicators, price change or an expectation of price change can stimulate activity although inevitably it isn’t good news for all. Some commentators are waiting for the market to return to normal, I am not one of them. After all exactly what is normal? If you look back through the last few decades it has been a number of different things.
“I believe that both consumers and lenders are currently in a period of adjustment to a new normal. A market that will be characterised by broadly flat or slow price increases; one where transaction volumes are lower than over the past ten years; where saving to buy becomes commonplace and a proportion of the population prefers to rent. It’s wrong to assume that everyone who is renting is doing it because they have to.”
Broadhead added that a rise in the number of higher Loan to Value ratio mortgages for first-time buyers plus participation in buy-to-let and alternatives such as shared ownership, NewBuy and self build could help boost the market this year.
