The Institute of Fiscal Studies said to implement the £8bn of welfare cuts mooted in his March Budget speech and implement a further £11bn of tax increases or welfare cuts on top could take until 2017-18, instead of the 2015 originally intended.

In next week’s Autumn statement at 12.30 on 5 December, he may have to abandon the target that debt will be falling in 2015-16, due to the economy’s weaker outlook and the disappointing trend in tax revenues over the last seven months, said the IFS.

The academic institute said underlying borrowing rose between 2011-12 and 2012-13 rather than fell as the Chancellor George Osborne had intended.

The £13bn overshoot in borrowing arises from an estimated undershoot in receipts of £17bn, offset partially by a £4bn underspend by Whitehall departments.

The analysis enlisted Office for Budget Responsibility figures to conclude borrowing so far for the year 2012-13 would total £133bn, £13bn higher than forecast by the OBR.

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Under both the IFS scenarios, debt would be on course to rise as a share of national income between 2014-15 and 2015-16 [or] £15bn and £27bn respectively.

Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said:
“Since the Budget, the outlook for the UK economy has deteriorated and Government receipts have disappointed by even more than this year’s weak growth would normally suggest.”