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Second estimate puts UK GDP unchanged at -0.3% in Q4

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  • 27/02/2013
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UK GDP contracted 0.3% in the last quarter of 2012, according the second reading of the data.

This figure is unchanged from the first reading in January, and will give economists continued cause for concern.

Initally they had expected a 0.1% contraction in growth, with many pointing to an expected reversal of the ‘Olympics effect’ that had helped the economy grow 0.9% in Q3.

According to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the production industries fell by 1.9%, revised down from the previously estimated 1.8% fall.

Manufacturing output fell by 1.3%, revised up from the previously estimated decrease of 1.5%.

Output of the service industries fell by 0.1%. Service industries output was previously estimated to be unchanged.

Output of the construction industry rose by 0.9%, revised up from the previously estimated 0.3% increase. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.2% in volume terms in the latest quarter.

The ONS said the decline in growth can be attributed to three factors: maintenance at the UK’s largest North Sea oil field, a ‘fall-back’ effect from the Olympic and Paralympic Games, and underlying weak domestic demand.

Although early forecasts for Q1 2013 GDP are more positive, a further contraction would see the UK slip into its third recession since the financial crisis.

The government is under increasing pressure to take steps to lift the UK towards recovery, especially after Moody’s became the first ratings agency to strip the UK of its AAA credit rating last week.

 

 

 

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