UK GDP growth will hit 3.1% this year, spurred by strong capital investment by businesses, the EY Item Club said.
Meanwhile interest rates will not rise until the first quarter of 2015, it predicted.
“After several false starts, this time [the recovery] could be different,” said EY’s chief economist Mark Gregory.
The Item Club raised its forecast for growth this year to 3.1% from 2.9% previously. This, it said, was due to an expected 12.5% jump in business investment.
This compares with 2% GDP growth in Canada and 1.8% growth in Germany, the body forecast.
Official figures show that UK GDP rose by 0.8% in the first three months of the year, the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth. This represents the longest positive run since the financial crisis.
The Item Club also forecast that interest rates would not rise this year from their record low of 0.5%. This is in stark contrast to the market consensus, which is for a rise later this year.
Last month, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signalled that rates could well rise sooner than most expected, which had at the time been in the first half of 2015. This led many commentators to expect a rise later this year.
Figures released last week showed a sharp rise in inflation to 1.9% in June, up from 1.5% in the previous month, which convinced many that rates – the primary tool used by the Bank to control price rises – would indeed rise sooner rather than later.
But the Item Club believes the fact wages are not rising as fast as inflation means rates will not rise this year. According to the latest figures, wages are rising by just 0.7% excluding bonuses.
“The markets are jumping the gun in thinking that rates will rise this year,” said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Item Club.
