You are here: Home - News -

An alternative take on predictions for 2016 – Dragonfly

by: Mark Posniak, managing director, Dragonfly Property Finance
  • 18/12/2015
  • 0
An alternative take on predictions for 2016 – Dragonfly
Even though predictions may be 'a load of old codswallop', Mark Posniak of Dragonfly Property Finance looks into his crystal ball and provides alternative take on what 2016 could bring.

Niels Bohr, the Danish Nobel laureate in physics, once quipped that ‘prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future’. With this in mind, and on the understanding that time is arbitrary anyway, I thought I’d make my own predictions piece this year about the past. Stranger things have happened in Mortgage Solutions, I’m sure. So here goes…

In 2015, I predict Leighton Aspell will win the Grand National for the second year in a row on a 33-1 shot called Many Clouds (get your money on it, dear reader, before the odds shorten); that the Tories will shock the polls at the General Election; that the Springboks will be stunned by Japan at the Rugby World Cup; and that Jeremy Clarkson will chin a producer in a fit of pique and get fired from the BBC, only to land on his feet in spectacular fashion. Time alone will tell if I’m right.

Joking aside, I suppose the point I’m trying to make is that predictions really are a load of old codswallop. And yet despite this, we’re bombarded with them each and every festive period. Take interest rates for a start. Over the Christmas holidays a year or two back while Mrs Doubtfire flickered in the background, I can remember reading, through port-clouded eyes, that interest rates would, with absolute, cast iron certainty, be rising in 2015.

In the event, the Bank of England has been so worried about China’s impact on the UK economy that the prospect of a rate rise this year wasn’t so much kicked into the long grass as hoofed into the next field. What we’re being told now is that that any rate rise is likely to stay off the table until deep into 2016, and possibly even 2017. And so the cycle of predictions starts all over again!

You know, I have a theory of my own in relation to the timing of interest rate rises — and the economy as a whole. In fact, it’s the only prediction I will stand by. It’s that, if we collectively spent the time we wasted on unnecessary forecasting doing work that has a real economic value, then we would add roughly 0.9% to UK GDP each year.

As a result, the economy would grow strongly and would enable the Bank of England to actually raise rates rather than speculate about it in the form of the officially recognised gobbledegook that is forward guidance.

Anyway, to all Mortgage Solutions readers, have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

There are 0 Comment(s)

You may also be interested in

Business Skills

In this section, we offer short ‘how to’ guides on harder to crack areas of business. From social media, to regulation or niche product areas, we cover it all.

Profiles

Our journalists interview key industry entrepreneurs, strategists and commentators for day-to-day market insight and a strategic view of where the industry is heading. We offer lessons for success and explore the opportunities for your business

Success in Practice

Here, we share case studies fleshing out best practice to help you decide what could work for your business. Take a look at how others approached complex tasks like launching a new mortgage lender, advising on a new product area or deciding to specialise in another. Learn from others mistakes and triumphs.

Marketwatch

Each week, we ask top mortgage and property commentators with a unique perspective to examine a key news headline, market move or regulatory or political issue.

Poll

Vote in our weekly poll here. It’s your chance to tell us what you think and be heard on the top news stories of the week. Review our archive to find out what your industry really thinks and all our coverage of the results.

Top Comments

Be part of the conversation on Mortgage Solutions. We want to hear from you. We have a tool called Disqus to tell us which stories get the most comments each week. Every Friday, the team picks the most thoughtful or opinionated contributions from our readers to enjoy again. Don’t forget to share your favourite stories from the site on social media to keep the conversation going.
  • RT @robjupp: Great day yesterday for donations to @MortSleepOut. With Gift Aid, we are now close to £17,000. It would be great to get to £2…

Read previous post:
head shot of Dale Jannels
A look back at specialist lending in 2015 – AToM

We have built foundations this year, we've seen new lenders launch with many others knocking on the door looking at...

Close