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House prices fall back in March after surprise February gain – updated

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  • 05/04/2019
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House prices fall back in March after surprise February gain – updated
The latest Halifax House Price Index brought mixed messages despite property prices continuing steady growth on an annual basis.

 

The average house price in March was £233,181, according to the lender’s index, down 1.6 per cent from the unexpected rise to £236,954 in February.

However, March’s figure was 2.6 per cent higher compared to the same period last year – easing slightly from the 2.8 per cent rise in February.

And on a quarterly basis the movement was somewhere in between, with prices up by 1.6 per cent compared to the final three months of 2018.

 

Corrects February growth

Halifax managing director Russell Galley highlighted the impact that fewer property transactions was resulting in a more volatile price index.

“The average UK house price is now £233,181 following a 1.6 per cent monthly fall in March,” he said.

“This reduction partly corrects the significant growth seen last month and again demonstrates the risk in focusing too heavily on short-term, volatile measures.

“Industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages being approved remains around 40 per cent below pre-financial crisis levels, and we know that lower levels of activity can lead to bigger price movements,” he added.

Galley noted that the more stable measure of annual house price growth rose slightly to 2.6 per cent and remained within the lender’s expectation for the year.

He added that challenges around deposit raising and lack of available properties, combined ongoing uncertainty around Brexit, meant the lender expected subdued price growth for the time being.

 

More resilient picture

Mortgage Advice Bureau head of lending Brian Murphy agreed that the data highlighted the mercurial nature of month-on-month price movements.

“That said, the quarterly figure for the first three months of 2019 suggests a more resilient picture, which given the ongoing political turbulence is perhaps reassuring,” he said.

“There is, however, the distinct possibility that the lack of homes for sale in many parts of the UK is providing support for pricing.  Also, let’s not forget that last March, we were all shivering in the grip of the Beast from the East with its concomitant impact on housing market activity.

“Therefore, while the annualised growth figure is encouraging at first glance, there’s a possibility that it doesn’t perhaps provide an accurate picture of market movements over the past twelve months, given the unusual circumstances of the same period last year.”

 

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