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House prices on course for worst year since 2012 ‒ IHS Markit

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  • 11/10/2019
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House prices on course for worst year since 2012 ‒ IHS Markit
The “fragile” housing market is on course to register the worst house price performance seen in seven years, according to the latest analysis from IHS Markit.

 

The firm noted that over the last quarter house prices have risen by just 0.4 per cent. And while this is an improvement on the second quarter figures ‒ when house prices fell by 0.4 per cent ‒ it nevertheless means that annual house price growth has dropped from 1.8 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

IHS suggested that the south of England now represents a “soft spot”, with falls in Greater London (-1.7 per cent), the South East (-1.3 per cent) and Eastern England (-0.5 per cent) over the quarter.

It noted that the decline in the capital was the sharpest since the third quarter of 2009, while the South East has seen prices drop on an annual basis for three straight quarters.

In contrast Scotland, Wales and the North West were all flagged as having performed strongly.

The analysis from IHS argued that prices in general rose more sharply for first-time buyers than home movers. Those purchasing a first property saw prices jump 2.3 per cent, a five quarter high, while for those already on the ladder it came to just 1.1 per cent.

Paul Smith, economics director at IHS, said: “Despite the low mortgage rate environment and rising earnings growth helping to ease affordability constraints, UK-wide house price inflation sank to a six-and-a-half year low. 

“Given the close relationship with wider macroeconomic trends in recent years, we suspect that political and economic uncertainty associated with Brexit continues to weigh on the market.

“This is especially the case in the south of England, where prices are falling and, in the case of London, at the fastest rate since the height of the financial crisis.”

 

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