While some mortgage and housing professionals welcomed a calmer run-up to the forecast than was seen in the weeks leading up to the Budget, others saw it as a missed opportunity to provide support to homebuyers.
Ben Thompson, director of home moving strategy at Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB), said: “In the current climate, no surprises are actually good news.
“We weren’t expecting fireworks from the Spring Statement, and in many ways, that’s reassuring. Right now, the housing market doesn’t need dramatic announcements or last-minute policy changes – it needs stability. So a statement that leaves housing largely untouched is, in itself, a positive.
“That said, it does feel like another missed opportunity. Big issues like stamp duty reform still haven’t been tackled, and that continues to hold people back.
“For many families, it’s not the mortgage that stops a move – it’s the hefty additional costs. These expenses can shut down plans before they’ve even started, which slows the whole market and, ultimately, the wider economy.”
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According to analysis by Rightmove, between 2021 and 2026, there has been a nine-percentage-point fall to 41% in the proportion of homes that are stamp duty-free for first-time buyers in England. Households in the West Midlands have seen the largest decrease, going from 68% to 53% over the five-year period.
Colleen Babcock, Rightmove’s property expert, said: “After the long build-up to November’s Autumn Budget, which was full of near-daily rumours about tax and policy changes, it’s been reassuring to see a much calmer run-up to today’s Spring Forecast.
“Looking ahead to the Autumn Budget, which is the government’s big opportunity for policy change this year, we’d really like to see stamp duty properly looked at. The current bandings haven’t kept up with house prices, and as a result, less than half of homes in England are now stamp duty free to first-time buyers, falling to just one in 10 homes in higher-priced regions like London.
“With around seven or eight months to go until the Autumn Budget, there’s time for the government to give some serious thought about how the system could be improved.”
Higher zero-rate thresholds, allowing payments to be spread over a longer period, taking a more regionalised approach to banding or scrapping the tax entirely should all be considered, according to Babcock.
| Region | Percentage of homes for sale in 2026 that fall under the current stamp duty-free threshold for first-time buyers (£300,000 and below) | Percentage of homes for sale in 2021 that fall under the current stamp duty-free threshold for first-time buyers (£300,000 and below) | Change in proportion of homes that are stamp duty-free for first-time buyers compared to five years ago |
| East Midlands | 59% | 70% | -11% |
| East of England | 39% | 50% | -11% |
| London | 12% | 11% | +1% |
| North East | 75% | 85% | -10% |
| North West | 60% | 74% | -14% |
| South East | 30% | 42% | -12% |
| South West | 41% | 55% | -14% |
| West Midlands | 53% | 68% | -15% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 64% | 76% | -12% |
| England | 41% | 50% | –9% |
Source: Rightmove
First-time buyers overlooked
Jeremy Leaf, North London estate agent and a former Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) residential chair, said the Chancellor had failed to offer much prospect of change despite the need to improve economic growth and address rising employment.
“While there has been less speculation about tax rises and spending cuts this time around, the Chancellor also hasn’t delivered any encouragement for first-time buyers, who are the engine room of the housing market and enable transactions to be unlocked further up chains,” he said.
Leaf added that Reeves had left out any measures aimed at stimulating new housing delivery or plans to increase transactions, despite the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecasting a fall in net additions to the UK’s stock of housing from an average of £260,000 per year in the early 2020s to a low of 220,000 in 2026-27.
Such measures, he said, are not only good for the property industry but also job and social mobility, as well as keeping house prices stable.
“While the spring forecast is unlikely to choke off recent increases in homebuyer and seller confidence, what happens in the Middle East – with its potential to increase inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer – may have more of an impact,” he added.
