Mortgage News
Acadametrics: house prices return to pre-crunch levels
Acadametrics claims that average UK house prices have returned to levels last seen in April 2007, before the credit crunch hit.
It is the only house price index to use actual house price sales and every single relevant transaction, rather than samples, lending more weight to its assertion that the average price of a home in England and Wales now stands at £222,008.
House prices have not yet recovered to the peak seen in February 2008 when the average stood at £231,828, but have increased 9.7% year-on-year.
The figures also show that house prices in February rose by 1.9%, a contradiction to the 1% and 1.5% decreases reported by Nationwide and Halifax respectively.
Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, said: “The increase of 1.9% is the tenth in succession and a further step up from the previous month of January at 1.4%. As the two lender-approval-based mortgage indices for February showed falls, we have a clear tension as to what is really happening in the market. Our index for the latest month is forecast on a mix of data but, as prior months show, when more data becomes available, is impressively stable and reliable.”
Despite the impressive recovery in average house prices, the research also revealed that housing transactions in January actually fell by 50%, largely attributable to the end of the temporary Stamp Duty holiday.
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Figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) also back this up, showing a 49% decrease in house purchase loans in January. The trade body reported the lowest levels of remortgaging activity in its eight years of publishing data, with just 24,000 loans
worth £3bn in January.
CML director general Michael Coogan said: “When December and January data are taken together,they show little change in underlying market conditions compared with recent months, with activity still slow but well up on the lows of a year earlier.
“We expect lending over the coming months to remain weak, as uncertainty over of the state of the economy and the upcoming General Election are likely to continue to hold back market activity.”
Paul Hunt, managing director of Phoebus Software, said: “There have been significant drops across the lending spectrum from December into January, but year-on-year things look a lot more encouraging. Compared to last year, we are still in slightly better shape, but the kicker this year is going to be interest rates.”