Mortgage News
House price sentiment: more than a feeling – KFH
Expectations for future price growth hit a record high with households in every region expecting the value of their homes to rise.
Record highs have also been reached in the East of England and the South West but in London and the South East, expectations have moderated from recent peaks.
A lot of this is down to positive sentiment, which has increased banks’ willingness to lend and lowered buyers’ and lenders’ perception of risk. The sustained good news on the economy and house prices makes people think less about losing money and more about trying to improve their life by making decisions that they previously put off.
Affordability becomes a smaller factor in the decision-making process. Equally, the converse of this truth explains why even though logically we should all buy when the market is at its lowest in the cycle, most people won’t until it’s too late.
Sentiment is the key to markets – not statistics. People like to feel it’s the right time to buy, not be told it is. Irritatingly, perhaps, the factors affecting sentiment are as many as they may be diverse.
News of fiscal initiatives such as Help to Buy probably has as much impact on sentiment as the scheme itself does.
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Local developments, new infrastructure, schools and hospitals are examples of what can affect demand and consequently a price. Just as share prices are sensitive to the timing and nature of news so it is with any other asset class and property, while less volatile, is no different.
Interestingly whenever the housing market grows or shrinks rapidly, lenders invariably like to talk to us [surveyors] rather than look at empirical sources to devine the future.
That tells you that while they understand that the spreadsheets can support a point, they cannot on their own convincingly make one about future activity. When you are trying to assess risk in the context of sentiment, there is no replacement for having someone at the coalface.
Robin Johnson is managing director at KFH Chartered Surveyors