Figures from HMRC show that in March, 104,070 transactions took place, which is the highest monthly level of sales seen since March 2025, when 176,190 transactions took place.
Month-on-month, sales rose 1% from 102,750, which points to early signs of stabilisation, said Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter, but does not signify a meaningful recovery in demand.
Futcher added: “Crucially, these figures are backward-looking. With completions typically lagging initial offers by 2-4 months, they reflect decisions made before the most recent moves in rates and market sentiment.”
The Bank of England’s decision to hold the base rate at 3.75% should not be mistaken for stability, he added.
“The Iran conflict has become the key external variable, through its potential to keep energy prices elevated and delay the path back to target inflation.
What mortgage and protection advisers should take from the FCA’s AI stance
Sponsored by Sesame Bankhall Group
“That has a direct bearing on housing. For borrowers, a hold means no immediate change in monthly repayments for those on tracker or standard variable rates. However, the real influence is through expectations.
“Swap rates have eased from the volatility seen at the outbreak of war and that has started to feed into mortgage pricing. Lenders are already responding, becoming more competitive to stimulate activity in what remains a soft market. But the improvement is fragile,” he said.
Futcher said if policymakers treat the geopolitical backdrop as a risk to monitor rather than a reason to tighten further, that should help anchor expectations that there is no imminent hike that would support a gradual improvement in mortgage pricing and, in time, transaction volumes.
“Anything that suggests a hike in the future is likely to feed back into higher swap rates and, therefore, higher mortgage pricing,” he added.
