In its trading update, it said it now anticipated an adjusted profit before tax of £38m, down from £43.4m.
It said the expected easing in interest rates and gradual recovery in purchase activity had not materialised. Although its business model usually protected the group against market weakness, “a material proportion of the group’s expected growth in 2025 was due to come from Fluent, where a significant anticipated increase in new lead flows has been delayed”.
The group said its delivery of Fluent’s “strategic plan” was slower than expected. After a recovery in business performance and development of the advice firm’s first charge mortgage proposition, “Fluent was expected to deliver a significant step-up in 2026, supported by new contractual lead flows”.
However, the launch of the arrangements has been delayed, and pilot costs have been incurred ahead of the associated revenue contribution.
MAB said this contributed to its lowered profit expectation.
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Sustained challenges in the mortgage market
MAB said the housing and mortgage market backdrop had “become more challenging over the summer” as global developments added uncertainty around inflation and borrowing costs.
It said: “The group does not expect a meaningful recovery in purchase activity in the short term. UK purchase transactions were 3% lower in the first seven months of 2026, while mortgage approvals for house purchase fell by 15% year-on-year in July.”
MAB said the market was still refinance-led and fixed rate maturities would provide a “significant refinancing opportunity” for the rest of the year, weighted towards product transfers.
Now that the H1 financial period is closed, MAB said it expected to report a higher-than-projected adjusted profit before tax of £14.8m, compared with its earlier expectation of £14.6m, which would have been in line with last year’s £14.5m performance.
‘Disappointing’ to revise expectations
Peter Brodnicki, founder and CEO of MAB, said: “While it is disappointing to revise our expectations for 2026, market conditions have softened since our July trading update, reducing our ability to offset the impact of delays to new lead flows into Fluent.
“While these delays have pushed the anticipated profit growth from Fluent into 2027, the updated guidance nevertheless represents adjusted profit before tax growth of approximately 5% compared with 2025, demonstrating the resilience of our business model against a more challenging market backdrop.”
Brodnicki said the group was continuing to strengthen its operating model by centralising administrative and support activities, increasing automation and integrating its invested businesses more closely.
He added: “As this work progresses, we have greater visibility over the timing and delivery of the resulting operational and commercial synergies. These initiatives are simplifying processes, improving efficiency and supporting increased operating leverage as the group grows.
“Together with the significant opportunity presented by upcoming fixed rate mortgage maturities, this progress leaves us well-placed to deliver solid profit growth this year and strengthen performance into 2027.”