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The case for a long-term fix

Mortgage Solutions
Written By:
Posted:
August 15, 2011
Updated:
August 15, 2011

Skipton Building Societies’ head of intermediary sales, Paul Darwin, examines the benefits of longer-term fixed rate deals as five-year swap rates fall to their lowest ever level.

Given that interest rates have remained at a historic low of 0.5% for a previously unimaginable 29 months, both the economic landscape and consumers’ expectations have changed.

Many borrowers on low SVRs or lifetime trackers have become used – perhaps unhelpfully – to lower-than-ever mortgage payments.

In reality, those of us in the know are well aware that this situation cannot continue forever and that, eventually, there will need to be a return to a higher Bank base rate if the market is to regain stability and sustainability.

Skipton’s view is that base rate is unlikely to rise until 2012 and that, when it does, the ascent will be gradual and slow, perhaps taking a number of years to re-stabilise.

Ideally, this needs to be the case, to give everyone the best chance to readjust their household finances and budgets and prevent any large payment shocks, which could result in a rise in mortgage defaults and repossessions.

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The question is, what kind of products should brokers encourage clients to plump for, given this uncertain environment?

In my opinion, now could be the time to re-evaluate the potential of the longer-term fixed rate.

There’s little doubt that, right now, the savvy money is on the relative charms of the two-year tracker, given that it is likely to be close to another 12 months before we see a noteworthy movement in the base rate.

In addition, the price differential between a two-year fix and a two-year tracker varies by as much as 1%, meaning most borrowers with an average loan of £130,000 would be better off getting a short-term tracker that enables them to benefit from the Bank of England’s continued good grace – to the tune of £1,300.

However, this view does start to change when you start looking at the longer-term horizon, with interesting trends beginning to emerge.

For example, in recent weeks we saw the launch of the lowest ever five-year fixed rate mortgage by another building society at 3.39%.

Then, in early August, five-year swap rates, which set the cost of funding for lenders and the charges they subsequently pass on to borrowers, reached an all-time low of 1.69% and ten-year swaps weren’t far behind at 2.77%.

This means that, when you look at the more typical historic rate trend of 5%, securing a five- or ten-year fixed rate deal could make a lot of sense.

That is, of course, dependent on individual circumstances. This kind of product is likely to best suit borrowers who feel they can commit to this length of time in their homes and who prefer the certainty of knowing what their monthly payments are going to be over the medium-to-long term.

It is impossible to predict how much further five-year rates have to fall.

Although there is some healthy competition that could drive rates even lower, coupled with the uncertainty in the eurozone and America, there does come a point beyond which they are simply no longer viable from a cost-benefit point of view.

However, for those borrowers whose circumstances might suit a longer-term fix, it’s important that they don’t leave it too long to capitalise on this opportunity.

With house prices, for example, it’s notoriously difficult to predict the best time to buy, but I think we can fairly safely assume that longer-term fixed rates are unlikely to stay so good for long – and might never fall so low again.

The closer we get to an eventual base rate rise, the more the markets will start to factor that in ahead of time, and up the swaps will go.

Those brokers who see the signals could ensure their clients end up quids in later on.

When considering which direction to point your clients in, it’s important to consider clients’ personal circumstances as well as the true cost of the product over the deal period, taking in low fees with higher rates or high fees with lower rates.

Of course, there are other options that are worth considering in the current climate, including droplock products that potentially allow your clients to metaphorically have their cake and eat it.

In addition, some lenders are offering the alternative solution of pick and mix products, allowing customers to combine tracker and fixed rate elements for defined periods within an overall product term. Such deals might be worth worth considering in a ‘hedge your bets scenario’.

Whatever happens, it’s important to consider all the options so that your clients don’t miss the boat.