In its Q3 update, the BCC said it expects the UK economy to grow 3.2% this year and by 2.8% in 2015, up from forecasts of 3.1% and 2.7% three months ago.
However, those figures, driven by higher consumer spending, were accompanied by a halving of its forecast for export growth, to 0.8%.
The slowdown will continue into 2016, the BCC added: it has maintained its 2.5% growth forecast for that year, on the expectation an interest-rate driven fall in household consumption will not be countered by an improving trade balance.
“The task at hand is to ensure that the stellar 2014 growth is not a flash in the pan,” said BCC director-general John Longworth.
“We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build. It is disappointing that we have downgraded export growth for the next two years as a strong international trade performance is key if we are to steer away from a reliance on consumer spending.”
Chief economist David Kern added: “Greater efforts to boost exports and investment, and avoiding premature interest rate increases, will ensure that the recovery is sustainable and that the pace of growth can strengthen in the future.”
The Bank of England, in contrast to the BCC’s estimate, continues to predict 2.25% growth for the export sector this year.
