How March reset the entire market for 2026, and possibly, beyond – Goodall

But I’m afraid that may risk underestimating both the scale of the changes we have seen and the way they are now feeding through into market and lender behaviour, broker activity and borrower expectations.

What we are dealing with is not simply a few weeks of volatility driven by geopolitical headlines, because even with some form of a short-term resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, the conditions created by it are unlikely to unwind quickly or cleanly, particularly when you consider the impact on energy markets, inflation expectations and wider economic confidence.

Markets are now moving on a daily basis, sometimes aggressively in different directions, and that creates a level of uncertainty that makes it very difficult for lenders to take decisive pricing positions without exposing themselves to being immediately out of line with the market.

Why stability matters more than speed of change

One of the key shifts we are seeing is not just in pricing itself, but in how lenders respond to movements in swap rates, because while in previous periods, a drop in swaps might have led to a quick reduction in mortgage rates, that is far less likely in the current environment.

Sponsored

How brokers can shape the future of shared ownership

Sponsored by Halifax Intermediaries

Even if we were to see swaps fall by 10 or 15 basis points over a short period, most lenders would now be reluctant to move straight away, because the risk of that movement reversing the following day is simply too high. That creates a situation where holding pricing and waiting for a clearer trend becomes the more sensible option.

In effect, lenders are now looking for a more prolonged period of stability before making meaningful changes, rather than reacting to short-term movements, which means brokers and their clients should not expect a quick return to the pricing we had in January or February, for instance.

The wider economic backdrop cannot be ignored

It is also important to recognise that the current situation is not just about mortgage pricing in isolation. Sustained increases in energy costs have historically been a reliable indicator of a wider economic slowdown, and there is a real risk that this feeds through into reduced growth, lower confidence and, ultimately, pressure on house prices.

We are not simply dealing with a short-term disruption but a broader shift in the economic environment that will influence lending decisions, borrower behaviour and investment appetite throughout the rest of 2026 and potentially beyond.

This is why it is more realistic to view what happened in March as a reset point rather than a temporary spike, because the effects of these changes will continue to shape the market even if the initial trigger appears to ease.

What this means for brokers and their clients

For brokers, the most important takeaway is that certainty has become more valuable than ever, because in a market where pricing has been changing quickly, what clients are really looking for is confidence that the deal you (and they) are working towards will still be there when they need it.

That means working with lenders who can provide consistency not just in pricing, but in criteria, service and the ability to support cases through to completion without unexpected changes, because those are the factors that will ultimately determine outcomes in a volatile environment.

It also means preparing clients for the likelihood that conditions will remain fluid for some time, rather than positioning the current situation as something that will resolve itself in the very near term.

The role of technology in keeping pace

In a market where timing has become so critical, the ability to react quickly is increasingly important, and this is where lender infrastructure can make a real difference.

Where lenders rely on third-party or much older, legacy systems, there can be a lag between deciding to reprice and actually bringing new products to market, which in fast-moving conditions can result in pricing that is already out of date by the time it is launched.

By contrast, having control over your own platform, as we do in Landbay, allows for much faster adjustments, helping to ensure products remain aligned with current market conditions and reducing the risk of being caught out by sudden movements.

This is not about chasing every short-term change, but about having the flexibility to respond when needed, and remaining active in the market while others may need to step back.

Planning for a longer-term environment

Ultimately, the key message for brokers and their clients is that this is not a moment to assume a quick return to a pre-war in Iran ‘normality’, because even with early signs of improvement in the short term, the market will still need time to settle into a more stable pattern.

Lenders will want to see sustained periods of consistency before making significant pricing moves, and that means the environment we are in now is likely to define the rest of the year rather than being confined to a few weeks of ‘disruption’.

Approaching it with that mindset should allow you to set realistic expectations, support your clients more effectively and make better decisions in a market that is clearly entering a more extended phase of adjustment.