The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) including owner-occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) increased by 3.2% in the 12 months to February – was also unchanged from the prior month.
Month-on-month, the CPIH was up by 0.4% in February, identical to the figure in February 2025.
‘Calm before the storm’
The current uncertain backdrop means the inflation figure for March may be less positive when it is released next month – something echoed by John Phillips, CEO of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, who noted: “Inflation holding firm in February is quite literally the calm before the storm as we anticipate and brace for a spike in inflation in the coming months.”
Phillips continued: “In truth, many are already overlooking today’s data in preparation of what is to come as the disruption caused by the conflict filters through to the UK economy. We’ve seen already a nailed-on cut turn into a hold and the promise of future cuts turn into the very real threat of rate increases. Even if the conflict stopped tomorrow, ‘Trumpflation’ is likely to linger on.
The growth of ‘just-off-high-street’ lending
Sponsored by Pepper Money
“We simply cannot put our heads in the sand and wait for it all to blow over. As we’ve seen in our latest figures for buyer registrations, valuation requests and mortgage appointments, clients still want and need support. While we are seeing thousands of products being pulled from shelves, either to be repriced or not to return, there are plenty of options still out there. As is often the case in uncertainty, the best course of action is to act early with quality advice and be prepared. Brokers play a crucial role in helping clients navigate a rapidly changing market, identify the best deals available and make informed decisions – particularly where opportunities exist to secure a better rate. Now, more than ever, we need to keep reminding clients of this.”
Emma Hollingworth, chief distribution officer at LSL Financial Services, said: “A flat inflation reading keeps the Bank of England firmly in cautious territory. With ongoing geopolitical tensions still feeding through to energy and shipping costs, policymakers will want clearer evidence that domestic price pressures are easing before committing to the next rate cut.
“Despite the lack of movement today, the backdrop for mortgage pricing has changed materially. Swap rates have been rising, reflecting market concerns about the durability of inflation. That means fixed rate mortgages are unlikely to fall meaningfully in the short term, even as lenders continue to compete hard for business.”
She continued: “For brokers, this reinforces the importance of early engagement. With a large cohort of borrowers approaching the end of their fixed terms in 2026, advisers have a timely opportunity to guide clients through a market shaped by global uncertainty and rising funding costs.”
