Mortgage News
Contradictory noises in the housing market – KFH
There are contradictory sounds emerging in the UK housing market as, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), house prices across the country dropped back slightly.
Its house price index fell from 186 in October to 184.9 in November but previously reported prices were at their highest level since records began in 1968.
Nevertheless, confidence remains high. Most economists believe the long-term trend is still upwards and rising levels of growth alongside falling inflation and unemployment will combine to push the value of a typical home in the UK to £216,097 in the next five years.
Talk of a bubble persists but to my mind there are two important factors to consider. Talk of a bubble is premised on a notion that the volume of money in the market is the indicator we should watch but the property transaction figures released by the Land Registry show that while the market may be picking up, sales are still far below pre-crash levels.
So, high prices are accounting for the headline numbers, not the number of properties passing ownership.
It shows that cash buying and financed low LTV mortgage finance is still providing a significant amount of the market and that lenders are still risk averse. Monthly sales are below 60,000 once seasonal adjustment has been made which compare to 100,000 in September 2007 just before the housing market suffered its collapse.
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The other point to highlight is that property prices in London and much of the South East are now more than 10% higher than they were during the peaks of 2007, while much of the rest of Britain’s heavily localised property markets remain fairly depressed.
The picture may improve around the rest of the country but all this suggests to me is that property price increases are patchy and that affordability in southern areas look set to become an increasingly important issue over the coming months.
Robin Johnson is managing director of KFH Chartered Surveyors