The removal firm said the trajectory of price growth seen in recent house price indices suggested the increase in buyer activity would continue through to Christmas based on sales already agreed. 

According to its analysis of Land Registry data, Reallymoving said house prices in England and Wales rose annually by 11.4 per cent in October to £333,830, a monthly change of 6.1 per cent. 

Furthermore, it is expected November will see yearly growths of 14.1 per cent to £337,450.  

However, the monthly growth in November is set to be subdued at just 1.1 per cent, ahead of an equally softened 1.5 per cent monthly increase in December.  

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Reallymoving predicts the slower growth seen at the end of the year would mark the beginning of price declines to come in the new year. 

 

New year dip 

Reallymoving expects house prices in England and Wales to see their first decline in seven months by January, dropping 1.2 per cent to £338,273. 

Coming from a high base, this is predicted to be a 15.4 per cent rise on last year’s average price. 

The firm said the drop would be a result of a cooling across the market as concerns over unemployment and economic projection impact consumer confidence. 

Reallymoving bases its projections on conveyancing quotes generated through its website, which are typically sourced 12 weeks before a transaction is completed. It said the data captured suggested there was a slowdown in activity in October which was set to influence prices negatively in the first quarter of 2021. 

Rob Houghton, CEO of Reallymoving, said: “As predicted, the new year looks set to herald a change in fortunes for the housing market following an exceptional summer and early autumn which has pushed prices to record highs.

“But it was never sustainable. House prices cannot continue to defy macroeconomic influences such as rising unemployment, shrinking economic growth and the prospect of a no deal Brexit at the end of the year.  

“While we will continue to see positive growth through to Christmas based on deals already agreed, momentum is now slowing, and we expect to see a reversal in the recent spike in house price growth over the first quarter of 2021.”   

He added: “One of the biggest challenges facing buyers going forward will be securing mortgages, particularly for first time buyers with small deposits, the self-employed and those on furlough which has now been extended to the end of March.  

“Government intervention to support first-time buyers may be necessary next spring to prevent the market from stalling.”