A poll of 119 brokers carried out by Landbay found 71% expected the central bank to reduce the rate and 61% predicted the cut would be a quarter percentage point.
A smaller proportion of respondents – 11% – forecast a 0.5% cut, while 27% said the base rate would remain unchanged from its current level of 4.5%.
Just 2% thought there was a chance it would go up.
Rob Stanton, sales and distribution director at Landbay, said: “Our findings reflect a cautious optimism among brokers and an expectation of a gradual easing of monetary policy – with a large majority anticipating a rate cut. While 61% think we’ll see rates fall 0.25%, a bullish 11% think we’ll see a 0.5% cut. That aligns with market expectations. A significant number of brokers expect no change, or even a rise, which highlights some ongoing uncertainty in the market, driven, most probably, by persistent concerns over inflation.
“While brokers are clearly trying to navigate a complex economic landscape, expectations of a potential base rate cut in May present opportunities for landlords and property investors keen to expand their portfolio.”
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Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 100% chance of the Bank of England cutting the base rate on 8 May, following the fallout of President Trump’s trade war across the global economy.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) originally said there was an 82% chance of the base rate falling from 4.5% to 4.25%, but this expectation was strengthened after Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene said the trade tariffs were likely to cause a fall in inflation.
LSEG data also showed the markets expected three base rate cuts by the end of this year.
