A ‘black swan’ is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences, and it’s said to only come around rarely in a generation.
There seem to have been a flock of black swans in this year’s mortgage market. In fact, within the past two weeks they have been everywhere. Every time I look around, I can see them looking at me, sometimes a little like the Grim Reaper, seemingly warning that our industry is set for a seismic event like September 2008 or September 2001. Why does it always seem to happen in September?
However, I firmly believe that, this time around, the black swans are merely passing and will not take nest in our market. In fact, I’ve already seen their numbers diminish. Yes, the Bank of England’s bond purchase programme has helped, as has the removal of the highly-misjudged tax cut for the high net worth, but the one of the biggest moves to banish those critters has come from our own industry.
Now is the time to seize the day
I’ve followed the media avidly in recent weeks, watching news channel after news channel, but also daytime TV, printed news and the radio and, across all of these, I’ve heard many of my industry friends and colleagues. Every one of them, without exception, speaking sensitively and exercising real balance in their judgement and comments.
I genuinely believe that those who have been prepared to put their heads over the ‘broadcast parapet’ represented the thousands of mortgage intermediaries incredibly well and have helped to calm the market. Thanks team.
Lenders seem to have all the bad publicity at the moment. Some commentators have suggested that they are deliberately using this market as an attempt to increase margin. I’m afraid, those that believe that to be the case, aren’t in touch with reality. I can quote countless examples of our lender partners (mostly talking about specialist lenders) actively working in partnership with us to make deals work.
This collaboration is a three-way one, including the client and obviously ourselves. Clients are more aware now that lenders will, have and could pull products, and thanks to our press spokespeople they increasingly understand the reasons why.
This means it’s much easier to have a sensible, honest conversation about trying to structure a deal that takes note of horrible market conditions, but also identifies a way to overcome the hurdles. Compromise is rarely achieved without every side giving a bit and this has never been more relevant than it is right now.
Carpe diem is probably the most widely known Latin phase and it simply means ‘seize the day.’ Our clients, our lender partners and our co-workers will all remember our conduct during these tough days. Now is the time to seize the day. The best way to build solid relationships for the future is when you are surrounded by those nasty black swans.
