Mortgage News
Carney signals end to forward guidance on interest rates
The governor of the Bank of England has indicated his policy of linking interest rates to unemployment could be scrapped less than six months since its creation.
One of Carney’s (pictured) first moves when taking over the hot seat at the Bank was to introduce an unemployment threshold to give a signal as to when interest rates might start to rise.
This forward guidance was welcomed at the time, but yesterday Carney moved in the opposite direction after the sharp drop in the unemployment rate helped build expectations an interest rate rise could come much faster – and even be seen this year.
Figures out this week showed unemployment has fallen to 7.1%, only fractionally above the 7% threshold which Carney had previously said was the point at which rates may start to rise.
Speaking yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Carney indicated the bank has decided not to revise its 7% unemployment threshold, but in a major U-turn he added the Bank is against “unnecessarily focusing on one indicator” in future.
“There are a broad range of things we could do,” he said, while making it clear the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has not taken a final decision yet.
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“We are trying to get across that it’s all about overall conditions in the labour market … we would not want to detract from that focus by unnecessarily focusing on one indicator.”
Carney added there are no immediate plans to raise rates despite the fact unemployment has moved so close to the threshold of 7% much more quickly than anticipated.
Jeremy Duncombe, director of Legal & General Mortgage Club, said: “The idea of linking interest rates to unemployment stats has always had its critics. Initially for the mortgage market, a concern was that forward guidance might signal the death of fixed rate mortgages, but we’ve continued to see fixed rates being preferred by borrowers who realise that rates would still rise in the medium term.
“Smart borrowers should still be aware that lenders are likely to price in base rate rises well in advance of any increases. The historically low rates currently available on the market have an expiry date. Borrowers should look at their options to tie into favourable deals while they still can.”