Released to coincide with the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, the OBR said the expected fall in net additions to the UK’s housing stock – which comprises new-build homes and conversions from commercial to residential buildings, less any demolished properties – was due to recently subdued levels of housebuilding.
The OBR then expects net additions to rise sharply to just over 305,000 by 2030-31, reflecting the impact of planning reforms.
This leaves cumulative UK net additions between 2025-26 and 2029-30 at 1.3 million, around 30,000 higher than forecast in November.
Impact of planning reforms
The fate of housing transaction volumes has also been pinned on the success of planning reforms.
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Housing transactions rose in 2025 as a whole by nearly 11% to 1.2 million, the highest level since 2022. They are then expected to grow by around 2.5% per year until 2030-31 as the housing market turnover rate returns to more normal levels and housing stock continues to grow, boosted by changes to the planning system.
Transactions are forecast to reach 1.3 million in 2030, similar to the OBR’s forecast made in November.
Felicity Barnett, new homes and affordable housing partnerships manager at Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB), said: “The forecast dip in housing additions to around 220,000 in 2026/27, followed by a rise to over 300,000 by 2030/31, is plausible – but it’s heavily conditional.
“It all hinges on planning reform delivering in practice, not just on paper. Planning is a large and complex system, and meaningful change won’t happen overnight. Without real momentum behind reform, there’s a risk those later gains simply don’t materialise.”
To increase housing delivery, Barnett wants to see “genuine progress” in the speed at which planning permission is granted and a greater investment in skills and apprenticeships to guarantee that there is the workforce to build the number of homes needed.
She added: “If supply tightens in the short term, the impact on homebuyers is clear: increased pressure on house prices and rents, particularly for first-time buyers, who are already facing affordability challenges.
“If ever there were a moment to consider a targeted demand-support scheme – a Help to Buy 2.0-style intervention – it would be during a dip like this.”
Industry body the Home Builders Federation (HBF) said that while the government had made encouraging progress on planning policy, ministers must acknowledge the worsening viability and affordability constraints on the homebuilding sector.
Steve Turner, executive director, said: “This is quite clearly reflected in today’s OBR projections for homebuilding that show a huge undershoot on the government’s 1.5m homes target.
“The Spring Statement is a missed opportunity to address this. Homebuilders are struggling to meet the ambitious targets of housing delivery alongside the backdrop of worsening viability conditions for housing developments as a result of new taxes, levies and policy costs.”
