Halifax, Nationwide and MQube released reviews of this year’s market and predictions for the year to come.
Halifax: Modest growth expected in 2026
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, said this year was “one of the most settled” regarding house prices, as values rose by just 0.7% to a record high of £299,892.
She said the stamp duty deadline in April resulted in a rush of buyer activity, but this did not translate into any significant rise in house prices, and the market eventually steadied.
Bryden added: “While affordability remains challenging, the picture has improved compared to recent years, driven by a combination of above-inflation wage growth, lower interest rates and some expansion of eligibility criteria from mortgage lenders.
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“For those taking their first steps onto the property ladder, monthly mortgage costs as a share of income are now at their lowest level since 2022, with the rate on a typical two-year first-time buyer mortgage at 90% loan to value (LTV) dropping by roughly 0.8 percentage points over the last year.”
She said the second half of the year was dominated by rumours about what would be announced in the Autumn Budget, which subdued market confidence, but prices and activity remained “broadly steady”.
Bryden added: “Looking ahead to 2026, we expect house prices to rise modestly by somewhere between 1% to 3%. While wage growth is expected to slow and unemployment may edge higher, lower interest rates and easing inflation should help to gradually improve homebuyers’ purchasing power.”
Nationwide: Stronger housing market as affordability eases
Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said the best word to describe this year’s housing market was “resilient”.
He added: “Even though consumer sentiment was relatively subdued, with households reluctant to spend and mortgage rates around three times their post-pandemic lows, mortgage approvals remained near pre-Covid levels.”
Gardner said house price growth was “well below the rate of earnings growth” and mortgage rates declined, easing affordability constraints and supporting first-time buyer demand.
He added: “The first-time buyer share of house purchase activity was above the long-run average, supported by easier credit availability, with the share of high-LTV lending (i.e., with a deposit of 15% or less) reaching its highest level for over a decade.”
Gardner said house price growth was strongest in Northern Ireland, while London was the weakest performing region. Values also rose notably in the Northern regions of England.
Looking ahead, Gardner said housing market activity would “strengthen a little further” as affordability improved gradually.
Nationwide expects annual house price growth to stay between 2% and 4% over 2026.
He added: “The changes to property taxes announced in the Budget are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. The high-value council tax surcharge is not being introduced until April 2028 and will apply to less than 1% of properties in England and around 3% in London. The increase in taxes on income from properties may dampen buy-to-let activity further and hold down the supply of new rental properties coming onto the market, which could in turn maintain some upward pressure on private rental growth.”
MQube: Greater use and adoption of technology
Stuart Cheetham, CEO of MQube, said service levels improved in 2025 as lenders embraced artificial intelligence (AI) and technological advancements “in a way they haven’t before”.
He said the adoption of mortgage technology would be “paramount” for both lenders and brokers next year, as this would “enable them to thrive in a dynamic market”.
Cheetham said: “It will help lenders streamline their businesses, reduce costs and increase volume and it will help brokers manage workloads, connect with clients and deliver exceptional service. For the consumer, it will mean getting a mortgage faster, easier and making the process more reliable.
“Technology will continue to increase its foothold in the industry in 2026, but whilst AI will play a crucial role in assisting human intelligence, it will not replace humans and instead act as a human-assisted function aimed at helping humans enhance productivity.”
Cheetham said MQube’s focus for 2026 would be plugging the AI educational gap and building expertise in the industry, so it becomes more confident and informed.
The firm will continue to develop new AI-driven innovations, looking to expand internationally and allow new markets to benefit from its technology. MQube will also develop its tokenisation offering, which it said would give lenders more liquidity by making their mortgage debt tradable.
