The UK’s chances of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) are fading, according to a poll of economists. A Reuters’ survey of 35 economists from across Europe conducted last month, found the chances of the UK joining the EMU by the end of 2006 stand at 13%, down from 25% in April this year.
Chancellor Gordon Brown said in June that his five economic tests for entry had not been met. Brown will look at the tests again next year, but even if they are met, economists think the Government would postpone any referendum until after the next election.
One respondent, James Knightley, economist at ING Financial Markets in London, said: ‘The focus will be on whether the Government delivers what it promised to improve public services. It will look ahead to the General Election [due by 2006] and is unlikely to devote any significant time on euro entry.’