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June mortgage lending up 16% but activity likely to ‘soften’ – CML

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  • 21/07/2016
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June mortgage lending up 16% but activity likely to ‘soften’ – CML
June’s gross mortgage lending rose by 16% on the previous month as lenders advanced an estimated £20.7bn, but activity is likely to ‘soften’ in the next six months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) warns.

The growth in lending, which represented a 3% year-on-year increase, saw last month become the highest June lending tally in eight years following £22.6bn in 2008.

Despite a strong push in the final month of quarter two, the period ended 10% lower than quarter one, on an estimated £56.1bn, although year-on-year there was an 8% rise.

CML senior economist Mohammad Jamei said the result of the EU referendum would have some effect on the housing market but to what degree, remained uncertain.

“Although mortgage firms have ample lending capacity, activity levels are likely to bear the brunt of any market adjustment over the next six months or so, as buyers and sellers wait to get a clearer idea of where we might be headed,” he said.

“But as with the economy, the UK housing market’s starting position is relatively favourable, with transactions having increased by almost 80% from post-crisis lows. Over the next six months, activity is likely to soften modestly, while lending will be driven more by remortgaging and less by house purchases.”

Andrew McPhillips, chief economist at Yorkshire Building Society, said he expects lending to continue to grow in the coming years, but at a more reduced pace due to decreased foreign investment and uncertainty around the future economic landscape following the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

With high expectations that the Bank of England would cut rates to 0.25% in July’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Mark Carney and his advisers voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Base Rate at 0.5% for another month.

Bank maintains rate as broker predicts 0.5% cut in August

After the UK voted to leave the EU, Carney indicated that monetary easing was likely to be needed over the summer as the economic outlook has declined.

Carney signals a cut in interest rates over the summer

The CML confirmed it expects the MPC to take action in its August meeting.

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