The LSL/Acadametrics house price index showed that Scottish average property prices were down 0.8% year-on-year in November, slowing from the 1.4% drop in October.
On a monthly basis, house prices fell 0.2% to an average of £147,202, following a 0.1% drop in October.
Yet, in monetary terms, this only amounts to Scottish prices being down £335 over the two months, indicating a housing market “in near balance, as opposed to in freefall”, according to Acadametrics chairman Dr Peter Williams.
He said: “We can anticipate a negative outturn for Scotland’s average house price in 2011 of approximately -1.0%. This anticipated fall compares with a +1.0% rise in prices during the last 11 months of 2010. Hence, it seems that the average house price in Scotland, at the end of the year, is likely to be back to its January 2010 level.”
On a regional basis, Acadametrics said that 12 out of 32 local authorities in Scotland will have recorded price growth over 2011, with the remaining 20 seeing average values fall.
Richard Sexton, director of LSL-owned e.surv chartered surveyors, said: “Although prices are pretty much flat in 2011, they’ve shown tremendous resilience given the bleak economic backdrop.”
The research also revealed that the average price of flats in Scotland suffered a 2.2% drop in November, driven by the lack of first-time buyers in the market. Low first-time buyer numbers was also the main cause behind housing transactions running 56% below the long-term average during the first 11 months of 2011.
Sexton added: “The upshot of flat prices is that high inflation is slowly making property more affordable. Mortgage finance – for those who can access it – is at its cheapest for some time. This is sustaining activity in some sections of the market, specifically buy-to-let investors and existing homeowners who are looking to upgrade.
“It’s a different story for first time buyers, who are being required to build up large deposits to secure a mortgage, with the majority of them stuck in the rental sector. Things will be just as tough for Scottish first-time buyers in 2012.
“The CML has done its best to map out a positive year for the mortgage market, but the terrain looks fraught with danger.”
