The CML yesterday said it expected gross mortgage lending of £195bn for 2014 but IMLA executive director Peter Williams has stated the figures underestimate the market.
“At this stage our instinct is that even the forecast of £195bn in gross mortgage lending for 2014 may be a conservative estimate,” he said.
“It would be no surprise to see the annual total exceed £200bn next year, with over one million transactions a given and an increasingly important role for brokers post-MMR.”
Williams went on to say the withdrawal of the Funding for Lending Scheme could have an adverse impact on growth but this would be countered by strong consumer demand and the continued success of the Help to Buy schemes.
He said regulators were right to keep a close eye on the mortgage market but this should not be at the expense of growth.
“With another busy year ahead, it is vital that government, regulators and the Bank of England are not consumed by fears that a mortgage market restoration will inevitably result in a ‘bubble’ inflating out of control.
“Even if 2014 brings £200bn of gross lending, this would still be 10% less than in 2002 and little more than half [55%] of the total recorded in 2007.
“The mortgage market has taken great strides this year, but this has been achieved with no small measure of government help. Even with £195bn+ lending on the cards for 2014, we are still a long way from a fully restored and sustainable market.
“Far from pressing the panic button, the task in hand calls for lenders to stay focused on offering reasonably priced and affordable mortgages while the construction industry ups its game to radically improve housing supply.”
