According to a report from Bayes Business School’s Real Estate Centre, which used property data from Rightmove and flood data, around 16.45 per cent of properties, or 803,057 properties in the sample, could be exposed to medium or high flood risk by 2050.
Using a longer-time horizon of 2080 the percentage of high risk properties grows by over three per cent
The report added that residential properties at risk of flooding sold at 8.14 per cent lower on average compared to non-affected properties.
The research said that the level of the price discount was “strongly correlated” with the probability if flood risk and reaches 31.3 per cent for “very high-risk properties.
The average flood risk of sold properties in England between 2006 and 2021 is pegged at 8.01 per cent, compared to unsold property flood risk which is 8.63 per cent.
No or zero risk of flooding increased the sale-ability of property from 63.3 per cent to 65.6 per cent, but the firm said that flood risk was “never the main driver of the sale”.
The areas most exposed to flood risk were East Anglia, the North West and Yorkshire with 13 to 18 per cent of properties impacted.
Proximity property risk
Semi-detached and terraced homes were more vulnerable to flooding since temporary protection measures like blocking doors, are only effective if neighbours take similar steps.
The report continued that between 2050 and 2080, property-level flood risk could grow by eight per cent.
It added that each one percentage point increase was associated with a 0.11 to 0.19 per cent decline in both sold and asking prices.
Ed Burgess, strategic manager in data services at Rightmove, said: “Although flood risk is largely factored into a valuation at the property marketing stage, the analysis shows how it will play a more significant role in property valuations by 2050, and is likely to rise up the list of home-mover concerns.”
Dr Nicole Lux, senior research fellow at Bayes Business School, said the findings should be a wake-up call for risk protection programmes:
“With sea levels and unpredictability of climate set to rise in years to come, this poses a great threat to properties and the housing market – particularly in low-income neighbourhoods.
“Flood risk impact on low-income neighbourhoods is something national programmes from the Environmental Agency’s flood risk management plans (FRMPs) should take into account,” she added.
