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UK house prices slump 1.2 per cent in October – ONS

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  • 20/12/2023
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UK house prices slump 1.2 per cent in October – ONS
The average house price in the UK fell by 1.2 per cent annually in October to £287,782, government data has revealed.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) house price index showed this was a sharper annual decline than the 0.1 per cent drop recorded in September, which was also the first yearly fall seen in more than a decade. 

On a monthly basis, average house prices fell by 0.7 per cent. 

UK house prices were £3,000 lower than a year ago in October, but £7,000 higher than a recent low recorded in March this year. 

 

No sharp decline 

While house price growth has cooled, the market avoided a crash and was starting to level out. 

Emma Cox, MD of real estate at Shawbrook Bank said: “Another drop in October probably signifies the beginning of the expected cooling of house ices starting to filter through, but I’m not expecting a sharp decline.  

“The shortage of available homes on the market is contributing to the relative resilience of house prices.” 

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, said the drop was “far from the plunge that some were predicting at this time last year, but months of price reductions on the property front line have finally fed through”. 

He added: “Even though some of the forward-looking house price indices already suggest asking prices are starting to rise again, the lag in the way the ONS collects its data means it’s likely to show further falls in coming months. 

“As a result, 2023 is firmly on course to be the first year in more than a decade to see a fall in the average price paid for a home.” 

Hopper said: “While the worst of the price correction is probably behind us, things aren’t back to normal yet. The market is still slow, and the number of homes changing hands in October was down over a fifth compared to the same month last year. 

“Nevertheless, the early signs for 2024 are encouraging. Softening interest rates, coupled with the sense that prices have bottomed out, are bringing would-be buyers out of the woodwork.”  

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said with house price predictions of a five per cent annual decline, the “minimal drop of just one per cent is the clearest example of the property markets enduring strength despite riding the real estate rollercoaster”. 

He said looking forward, predicting the market would be like “trying to read a ‘mortgage mosaic’” as it would be a “picture made of many different, tiny pieces, often driven by regional and economic nuance”.  

 However, Leeming said: “What we expect to see is a minor reduction in property values overall next year, but no great dips as we have seen from 2023 the strength that underpins our bricks and mortar.”  

 

House prices up in North East and Wales 

The North East was the only region in England to report an annual rise in house prices with a 0.2 per cent growth to £161,237. On a monthly basis, house price growth was flat at zero per cent. 

London saw the largest yearly change in average house prices with a 3.6 per cent decline to £515,504. This was followed by the East of England where values fell by 2.3 per cent to £348,615. 

Across the country, England reported a 1.4 per cent annual decline to £305,902. 

In Wales, average house prices fell by three per cent year-on-year to £214,100, while in Scotland there was a 0.2 per cent increase to £191,233. 

Average house prices in Northern Ireland rose by 2.1 per cent annually to £179,530. 

 

Flat house price growth for detached homes 

The value of detached houses was flat compared to last year at £457,222, while flats and maisonettes saw the sharpest decline of 2.5 per cent to £225,803. 

The average price of terraced homes dropped by two per cent year-on-year to £234,553, while semi-detached houses fell by 0.3 per cent to £281,658. 

The average price of new-build homes shot up by 20.6 per cent yearly to £430,202, which equated to a 10.5 per cent monthly jump in October. 

The value of existing resold homes fell by 0.5 per cent to £284,036 against last year, with a one per cent monthly uptick. 

On average, first-time buyers paid 1.6 per cent less for their homes at a value of £238,804. This was down by 0.9 per cent compared to the previous month. 

Former owner occupiers saw a one per cent annual decline in the price they paid for a home at £337,513, which was a 0.6 per cent fall on September. 

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