From the three months to February 2012, NIESR reported no growth in the UK economy, but said output UK grew by 0.1% in the three months ending March 2012, an improvement, albeit a marginal one.
“These data suggest the UK economy has avoided a ‘technical’ recession (two consecutive quarters of decline),” NIESR said.
It warned that, with such weak rates of growth, the UK’s negative output gap is likely to widen.
“But we do expect this economic weakness to be temporary, with the recovery taking hold in 2013,” NIESR said. “We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2014.”
NIESR defines ‘recession’ as a period when output is fall or receding, while ‘depression’ is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.
Therefore, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while a depressive period can continue for some time.
Although recession has been avoided, depression in the UK is likely to continue for some time, it added.
