In the face of soaring inflation in the UK, monetary policymakers are widely expected to action the steepest increase seen since 1989. The last time the base rate was at three per cent was in November 2008 before the financial crisis.
Markets are predicting a 90 per cent chance of a hike by three quarters of a percentage point.
EY and Goldmans weigh in with predictions
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “On balance, the EY ITEM Club expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise rates by 75bps this week – although a smaller 50bps increase wouldn’t be a surprise.
“That would be consistent both with recent comments from some MPC members that markets have been pricing too substantial a rise in the bank rate, and with divisions among the committee – while three members voted for 75bps in September, one voted for just 25bps.”
Economists at Goldman Sachs agree with this assessment. As quoted on CNBC, they said: “We see less pressure for the BoE to act aggressively, but we still believe that a step-up in the pace to 75 basis points is likely given that (1) fiscal policy is on net more expansionary than assumed at the August Monetary Policy Report (MPR) meeting; (2) news on the labour market and underlying inflation pressures has been firm; and (3) MPC commentary points to a robust policy response at the November meeting.”
The Bank of England has raised rates at consecutive meetings since December 2021 when the base sat at just 0.1 per cent.
A further increase to the base rate is likely to feed into mortgage costs, which have already risen substantially over the past year.
Anyone on a variable rate mortgage can expect to see a near instant increase to mortgage costs, while anyone coming off a fix in the coming months will be met with higher rates.
Even if the bumper hike on Thursday materialises, The BoE is expected to keep raising the base rate over the coming months taking it to at least five per cent next year.
Inflation and growth forecasts to come
When setting the base rate tomorrow, monetary policymakers will also deliver their latest forecasts for inflation and economy growth which will give some insight on how 2023 may shape up.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Inflation may well now peak above 11 per cent with scorching food prices in particular pushing up expectations.
“So, the Bank is still set to signal a further tightening of monetary policy, with financial markets now expecting that interest rates will reach around five per cent next year before declining, as the impact of the recession, lower commodity prices and an easing off of supply chain snarl ups feed through.
“Dampening down demand now by raising rates and making borrowing more expensive is set to cause further financial pain for companies and consumers, but central banks clearly think it is the price to pay to reduce the risk of a prolonged period of stagflation.’’
