Looking at the overall mortgage market, gross mortgage lending was £13.2bn in November and, according to the CML, was £12.2bn in December. This is 16% higher than a year ago and extends to five months the trend of improving year-on-year numbers, a level that some found rather fanciful earlier in 2011.
Positive indicators can be also found in other data with 47,000 loans made for house purchase in November, up on October and again showing a year-on-year increase.
The CML has also recently released figures indicating that the number of mortgages agreed for first-time house buyers picked up at the end of 2011. The number of home loans for first-time buyers in December (18,700) was up 7% on November and up 14% on December 2010.
Some buyers might be trying to buy before the end of the 1% Stamp Duty holiday on 24 March, but it is a good sign to find consumers who are able and willing to make a purchase.
Despite a good deal of doom and gloom from lenders and brokers, many report that 2012 has started rather well with enquiry levels up on pre-Christmas levels.
We are just analysing the results from the latest IMLA survey of intermediaries, but the initial view would also appear to be quite upbeat for Q1 2012:
- nearly 47% expect an increase in remortgage business
- over 56% expect to see an increase in buy-to-let business
- the overwhelming majority of intermediaries are not expecting decline in any business area
- the weakest market is expected to remain the first-time buyer sector, but even here 78% expect the market to be stable or improving
Of course, we are by no means out of the woods yet and financial markets remain very nervous and volatile in the UK and across Europe.
However, is this one of those points where the market starts to settle down and we see stability leading to greater confidence and thereby facilitating growth?
John Heron is chairman of IMLA
