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0.3% decline in UK GDP confirmed for Q4

by: Anna Fedorova
  • 27/03/2013
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The third reading of UK’s GDP growth for Q4 2012 has confirmed a 0.3% contraction between the third and fourth quarter.

The figure remains unchanged from the first and second readings, in January and February respectively.

The economic contraction is worse than economists’ original estimates of a 0.1% decline, raising fears over the economic recovery.

In Q3, many economists were encouraged by the growth of 0.9% caused by the ‘Olympic effect’, which sparked the more optimistic forecasts for the fourth quarter.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), household consumption expenditure has increased by 0.4%, up from the original estimate of 0.2%.

Households’ saving ratio was estimated to be 7.1% in 2012, the highest since 1997, and real household disposable income increased by 2.1%, the highest growth since 2003.

However, these increases were offset by a 2.4% fall in output production over the year, caused mainly by the 2.1% fall in Q4.

Output of the agriculture, forestry & fishing industries fell by 0.5% in Q4, while mining and quarrying output decreased by 10.7%.

The ONS pointed to gross fixed capital formation, which fell by 0.2% in volume terms and the £6bn net trade deficit, as the main contributors to the fall in GDP.

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