During a mortgage market panel debate held at FSE 2014 today, Alan Cleary of Precise Mortgages, said he believed the market would surpass £200bn of gross lending however warned against any anticipation the mortgage market would show continued stellar growth over the next 12-15 months.
“If you believe politicians, who sometimes like to use the housing market as a political football, you could easily believe that £300bn was do-able however I’ve seen the FCA’s expectation for this market and it is flat. They are not going to let this market do anything ‘topsy’,” said Cleary.
Gary Salter, Nationwide Building Society, agreed that £200bn was achievable in 2014 however he also believed the mortgage market had “calmed down slightly” in recent months whilst still suggesting the market would grow by 10-15% next year.
David Whittaker of buy-to-let specialist brokers, Mortgages for Business, agreed that 2015 was “not looking as promising” as when 2014 began. He said buy-to-let gross lending levels would hit £25/26bn in 2014 however the ‘momentum and the heat is coming out of the market’.
The panel debate covered a variety of mortgage-related issues including a prediction contest on when Bank Base Rate was likely to rise.
Whittaker said: “I stick to my prediction of February 2015 as it’s the last inflation report ahead of the general election. Three months ahead of the election you can’t be seen to be politically manipulative and more important [George] Osborne will wish to show his credentials of being fiscally prudent.
“And if we’re to avoid too much interest rate shock a small increase before the General Election puts a flag out to the consumer that we’re on a journey – and I think that would be the right thing to do.”
Martin Reynolds of Simplybiz, who had originally predicted a rate rise for October this year back in FSE Manchester in May, now suggested this was unlikely. He agreed with Whittaker that February next year was probably as good a guess as any while Gary Salter hedged his bets at quarter two next year.
