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Residential property transactions fall again but improvement on the horizon ‒ HMRC

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  • 30/11/2023
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Residential property transactions fall again but improvement on the horizon ‒ HMRC
The number of property transactions continued to fall in October, with non-seasonally adjusted residential transaction figures coming to 90,920, down 17 per cent from last year and two per cent from the prior month.

Figures from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) show that seasonally adjusted residential transactions were pegged at 82,910, a fall of 21 per cent compared to last year and three per cent down on September numbers.

There were around 10,280 non-residential transactions, five per cent up on October last year and five per cent higher than September this year.

 

‘We don’t expect any great fireworks this side of the new year’

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said that transactions were a “better test of housing market strength” as opposed to pricing.

He continued: “These numbers are relevant as not only do they take into account mortgaged and cash sales, they demonstrate a clear determination among buyers to complete their purchases at a time when mortgage rates had not yet started to ease and inflation was still very high.

“Looking forward, we don’t expect any great fireworks this side of the new year with next year likely to continue in a similar fashion.”

Gareth Lewis, managing director of property lender MT Finance, added that transactions had “dipped” volumes “haven’t fallen off a cliff with people still buying and selling, which is positive”.

He added: “The numbers are what you would expect given the higher interest rate environment, which creates affordability issues, but borrowers are gradually getting used to this.

“The stabilisation of the interest rate environment will encourage more people into the market. Better mortgage products at sub-five per cent are also helpful, while lenders need to think outside the box in order to support borrowers as best they can.”

Lewis noted that moving into a “better” interest rate environment would improve consumer confidence and a “government incentive in the new year to get people to transact would be a further move in the right direction”.

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