The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said “robust” growth helped the economy to expand by between 1% and 1.2% in the three months to April, the Telegraph reports.
Growth at the upper end of this estimate would mean Britain surpassed its pre-crisis peak last month, as the economy finally clawed back the losses it suffered in the recession.
“We’re incredibly close to the pre-recession peak,” said Jack Meaning, a research fellow at NIESR.
“So whether we make it in the estimates or not will be a matter of 0.1 percentage points. Investment is going to start picking up again now that credit is getting out to firms. We’ve also had a reasonably strong performance from the retail sector, and consumer spending has been echoing that.”
The economy shrank by 7.2%, or around £111bn, in the recession, the second sharpest fall in the G7.
Growth of 0.8% in the first three months of the year meant the economy was 0.6% smaller in March than it was at its peak in 2008, according to the Office for National Statistics.
However, NIESR said exceptionally strong growth in April could be enough to push the economy beyond its pre-recession peak.
A day after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates on hold, NIESR also revised up its forecasts for 2014 growth. It expects the economy to grow by 2.9% this year, up from a forecast of 2.5% three months ago. Growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.4%, from a February forecast of 2.1%.
While passing its pre-crisis peak would mark an official turnaround for the British economy, countries such as the United States and Germany returned to pre-crisis levels in 2010. NIESR also said that GDP per capita was unlikely to surpass previous levels until 2017.
