Name: Jonathan Cornell
Company: First Action Finance
The property market is going to be a year of two contrasting halves. I tend to disagree with Mortgages for Business as I think houses prices will continue to rise as they did in the second half of last year.
The surge last month was caused by an overspill of demand from buyers trying to push their transactions before the Stamp Duty holiday ended. Demand for property, low interest rates and a low supply have helped to push prices up.
Most estate agents seem to have reported a relatively busy start to the year, although admittedly there was a blip due to the snow when very little happened.
The start of 2010 will continue as 2009 left off, and the market will continue to rise. Buyers enjoying low interest rates will continue to snap up the small supply of property which will hit the market.
Those with jobs now are unlikely to lose them and for many in the banking industry, while their bonuses are not going to be as large as they hoped (mainly due to political reasons rather than profit and loss ones), they will still be substantial as many financial institutions will still have had a strong 2009.
However, the market will slow down in time for the election, as nervous homebuyers sit on the sidelines to see which political party will inherit a terrifying level of public debt.
The World Cup will also have an effect and the longer England make it through, the greater the impact. In the second half of the year, the Bank base rate may start to increase and the Government will need to start slashing our public debt.
Name: David Newnes
Company: Your Move Estate Agents
House prices are the big unknown for 2010 – nobody knows for sure if they will rise or fall, or by how much. However, two things are clear. Buyer interest is growing and as spring approaches, house hunters will be out in force.
Consumer confidence is building with the recession appearing to be over and the economy strengthening.
As debt burdens ease and with interest rates still low, more consumers should be able to borrow for house purchase. The availability, choice and cost of mortgages should improve as new lenders enter the market and existing lenders swell their lending books.
There is a lot of pent-up demand. Enquiries to the Your Move offices are up strongly, with website traffic hitting record peaks at the end of January. These enquiries actually outstripped the previous January high of 2007. In that year, website traffic was 60% higher by end of March, so 2010 may be similar.
Although this is good, will it translate into higher property prices? Possibly, although we are not out of the economic woods yet and there will be bumps along the way. The impact of the general election is hard to gauge as well.
We can say with some confidence that house prices will not race ahead – it is not a new boom but we do not expect substantial falls, with rising demand and a shortage of stock helping to sustain prices. Now could be a good time for sellers to put their homes up for sale. For the serious purchaser with a medium term time horizon, 2010 could also be a good time to buy.
Name: Robert Scarff
Company: Countrywide Estate Agents
I think it is unlikely that house prices will fall due to lack of demand. We are more likely to see house prices rise due to the lack of supply and increasing demand.
2010 is going to a very interesting year for the property market. The year has started off positively and has built upon the strong demand we saw at the end of 2009.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research and Nationwide have revised their forecasts for house prices to reflect the increase in house prices, and they anticipate house prices to rise between 6% and 10% this year.
The heavy snow in the majority of the country early this year did not affect the enthusiasm and confidence of buyers, as our figures show that buyer enquiries rose week-on-week in January, reaching levels not seen since February 2008.
Housing supply, unemployment and the impending election are key factors which will determine whether house prices rise or fall.
A general election always has an impact on the market as people who do not have a compelling reason to move will wait for the outcome. This may turn out to be the case particularly this year, as the Conservatives have promised to scrap Home Information Packs (HIPs) should they come into power.
Buyer demand is likely to remain strong for the rest of year and supply is likely to increase after the general election.
Coupled with an increase in mortgage affordability – house prices are likely to continue upwards.
